−3.0if it misses
+7.0if it lands
Bold picks score more
A pick with a 30% chance scores +7 if it lands and costs 3 if it misses. A 90% pick scores +1 or costs 9. Safe picks earn little, bold picks earn a lot, and the points follow the chance either way.
| Chance of landing | If it lands | If it misses |
|---|---|---|
| 20% | +8.0 | −2.0 |
| 30% | +7.0 | −3.0 |
| 45% | +5.5 | −4.5 |
| 70% | +3.0 | −7.0 |
| 90% | +1.0 | −9.0 |
Zero is the odds
If you made every pick exactly the way the odds did, you'd finish around zero. Your score is the number of picks you got right minus the number the odds expected you to get right, times 10. Five right when the odds expected 4.2 is +8. The points come from the picks where your read beats the odds.
Your odds stay locked
Example: you lock a pick at a 30% chance. It's worth 7.0 points if it lands and costs 3.0 if it misses. The odds then move to 45%, and your pick still scores +7.0 or −3.0.
Your points are set the moment you pick. Say you pick a receiver to go over 70 yards while the odds give him a 30% chance: +7 if it lands, −3 if it misses. If the odds move to 45% by kickoff, your pick is still +7 or −3. Someone who makes the same pick at 45% gets +5.5 if it lands and loses 4.5 if it misses.
Changing a pick before kickoff
You can edit your picks as often as you like until the game starts. A pick you leave alone keeps the odds from when you first locked it. Change its side or its line, or drop it and add it back, and it takes the odds at that moment. Once the game starts, your picks are locked for good. In Team Pick'em, the whole slate locks at its first kickoff.
What you see during the game
Once the game starts, each pick shows its live chance of landing, and your place on the leaderboard moves with it. The points on each pick were set when you locked it; the live chance tells you how likely they are to come in. The leaderboard ranks you against your friends: you plus up to nine you invite. Playing with friends.