Stats That Actually Predict

The box score tells you what happened. It barely hints at what happens next. These are the numbers that actually predict a player's next game — across NBA and MLB. Learn to read them, then prove you can read the game. Chalk is cheap; conviction is worth something.

Across sports

The Stats That Actually Predict a Player's Next Game Some stats forecast a player's next game far better than others. Learn which NBA and MLB numbers actually hold up, with real examples and sources. Read more →

NBA

Which NBA Numbers Predict a Player's Next Game The NBA stats that best predict a player's next game: true shooting percentage, recent usage trends, matchup data, and rest — not raw points. Read more → True Shooting Percentage Explained for NBA Fans True shooting percentage (TS%) measures real NBA scoring efficiency. Here's what it means, how to read it, and why it changes your player predictions. Read more → Why Shooting Percentage Is Misleading in Basketball Shooting percentage looks like an efficiency stat, but it hides volume and shot location. Here's why 50% shooting can mean less than 40%, and what to use instead. Read more → Why Points Per Game Is a Terrible NBA Stat (And What to Use Instead) PPG looks impressive but hides inefficiency. Here's what smart NBA fans use instead — and why it matters. Read more → Usage Rate in Basketball, Explained for NBA Fans Usage rate in basketball, explained simply: what it measures, how it's calculated, why 20% is average, and how to use it to read which NBA players will score. Read more → What Does Plus-Minus Mean in Basketball? (And Why It Lies) Plus-minus explained simply: what the number actually measures, why broadcasters love it, and why smart fans treat it with caution. Read more → What Is Net Rating in Basketball? A Plain-English Breakdown Net rating is point differential per 100 possessions. Here is what it actually measures, why per-100 matters, and how to use it when you predict. Read more → Player Efficiency Rating (PER) in Basketball, Explained Player efficiency rating (PER) explained simply: what it measures, why 15 is always average, the minutes trap that fools fans, and how to use PER while watching a playoff game tonight. Read more → Advanced NBA Stats for Casual Fans: 3 Numbers to Know Advanced NBA stats for casual fans: true shooting, usage rate, and plus-minus explained simply for smarter playoff watching. Read more →

MLB

Why Batting Average Is a Bad MLB Stat (And What to Read Instead) Batting average looks like it tells you who can hit. It doesn't. Here's what smart MLB fans read instead, and why it actually predicts the next at-bat. Read more → What wOBA Tells You That Batting Average Can't Batting average ignores walks and values all hits the same, but wOBA weights outcomes by their actual run value. It reveals why some low-average hitters contribute more than their BA suggests. Read more →

MLB is the thinnest cluster here on purpose — it is the biggest opening we have. Expect this section to grow fastest (OPS+, FIP, barrel rate, expected stats). Future sports slot in as their own labeled cluster, same structure.