How to read a player before the game

Most bad picks come from trusting the wrong number, like one hot week or a season average that ignores who's playing tonight. These posts are about when a number deserves your trust.

Across sports

How to Get Better at Sports PredictionsThe habits that make your picks better, from trusting bigger samples to grading yourself against the odds you locked, with baseball and football examples.Read more →

Baseball

Park Factors and OPS+: What Coors Does to a HitterCoors Field's park factor on Baseball Savant and what OPS+ adjusts for, plus how the pitcher's hand moves a hitter's numbers on any given night.Read more →How Many MLB At-Bats Before You Can Trust a StatStrikeout rate means something after about 60 plate appearances. Batting average needs 910 at-bats. The trust points for MLB hitters and pitchers.Read more →

Basketball

How to Predict Player Stats: Start With MinutesThe five inputs that move a basketball player's stat line, from minutes and usage rate (USG%) to pace, rest and playoff rotations, with real numbers.Read more →

Football

Early-Season College Football Stats: What Holds UpEarly-season college football stats are built on soft schedules and small samples. Here's how to read them, and which usage numbers hold up.Read more →