GAGE Blog

Posts on the numbers that predict a player's next game and on how the odds work in GAGE.

Reading an NFL Player's Week: Usage and Game ScriptAn NFL player's yards follow his share of the ball. Here's how to read that share before kickoff and what to watch once the game starts.Read more →ANY/A in Football: Adjusted Net Yards per AttemptANY/A is adjusted net yards per attempt, a QB stat that adds a touchdown bonus and charges for picks and sacks. Here's the formula and 2025 examples.Read more →CPOE and YAC: What a QB's Completion Rate HidesCPOE (completion percentage over expected) grades a QB's accuracy against how hard the throws were. YAC is the yardage a receiver adds after the catch.Read more →Watching an MLB Game: What to Track Pitch by PitchThe numbers worth tracking while an MLB game is on, from the starter's pitch count to the batting order, and how each one moves a pick's live chance.Read more →EPA in Football: What Every Play Is WorthEPA (expected points added) grades each football play by how it moves a drive's expected points. Here's the math with 2025 numbers, and how DVOA differs.Read more →Early-Season College Football Stats: What Holds UpEarly-season college football stats are built on soft schedules and small samples. Here's how to read them, and which usage numbers hold up.Read more →Swinging Strike Rate: What It Says About StrikeoutsSwinging strike rate is the share of pitches hitters swing at and miss. What a good rate is, and why it's the best check on a pitcher's strikeout rate.Read more →Underdog vs Favorite: Read the Odds as a ChanceA favorite is the side the odds give the better chance of landing. Here's how that chance becomes GAGE points, and why you lock it in before it moves.Read more →xwOBA vs wOBA and BABIP: Luck or Skill at the PlatewOBA counts a hitter's results, while xwOBA credits the quality of their contact. How to read the gap between them, and what BABIP says about luck.Read more →Park Factors and OPS+: What Coors Does to a HitterCoors Field's park factor on Baseball Savant and what OPS+ adjusts for, plus how the pitcher's hand moves a hitter's numbers on any given night.Read more →Barrel Rate: What Counts as a Barrel in BaseballA barrel is a ball hit 98+ mph at a launch angle built for extra bases. What barrel rate says about power, with 2025's leaders and league average.Read more →How Many MLB At-Bats Before You Can Trust a StatStrikeout rate means something after about 60 plate appearances. Batting average needs 910 at-bats. The trust points for MLB hitters and pitchers.Read more →FIP vs ERA: What Is a Good FIP in Baseball?On FanGraphs' scale a 3.80 FIP is above average and 3.20 is excellent. What FIP counts, and why it tells you more than ERA about a pitcher's next season.Read more →The Best Way to Watch Sports With Friends: Keep ScoreWatching with friends is better when you're all playing the same game. Here's how a game with friends works in GAGE, from the picks you make to the leaderboard that ranks you.Read more →How to Get Better at Sports PredictionsThe habits that make your picks better, from trusting bigger samples to grading yourself against the odds you locked, with baseball and football examples.Read more →Net Rating and Plus-Minus in Basketball: How They WorkNet rating is points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions. Plus-minus is one player's slice of it. Here's the math and where each one misleads.Read more →Shooting Percentage Is Misleading. Use True Shooting.Field goal percentage treats a three like a layup and skips free throws. True shooting counts both. Here's the formula and what a good number looks like.Read more →How to Predict Player Stats: Start With MinutesThe five inputs that move a basketball player's stat line, from minutes and usage rate (USG%) to pace, rest and playoff rotations, with real numbers.Read more →